Forecasting Fallacy Exposed: The Economics Behind Accuracy
Forecasting plays a pivotal role in most business decisions and few would disagree that that high-quality forecasting is a strong competitive advantage for ... Read More...
Models & Methods
The Practical Guide to your First Forecasting Model
Forecasting is part of everyday life. We watch the weather channel before we make weekend plans and text our family our ETA when we leave work. However, for... Read More...
Managing Optimism Bias In Demand Forecasting
I recently watched a Ted Talk by Professor Tali Sharot, a specialist researcher in Experimental Psychology at University College London. She described how o... Read More...
Demand Sensing & Shaping With Starbucks
Are you a Starbucks customer? If so, the coffee chain is analyzing your purchases to create a personalized experience for you – and to get you to spend more mon... Read More...
The Simple Power of Aggregate Forecasting
In the 1990’s when I was with Baxter Healthcare, we implemented a statistical forecasting solution for our European affiliates. In going through the user tr... Read More...
Transitioning From Times Series To Predictive Analytics
I recently had a fascinating and enlightening conversation with one of the leading figures in predictive analytics and business forecasting, Dr. Barry Keati... Read More...
My Favorite Forecasting Model
One of the questions I get asked most frequently is “What is your favorite forecasting model?” My answer is “it depends” because not all problems need a ham... Read More...
How I React When Forecasted Demand Deviates from Actual Demand
As I have written about before in a previous article, Forecasting Materials Usage At An Electric Utilities Company, forecasting efforts for an electric util... Read More...
How To Improve Forecast Accuracy During The Pandemic?
Q) During the current pandemic we are facing a very difficult time in preparing forecasts. Our forecast accuracy is far below what used to be. Can you suggest a... Read More...
5 lessons I Had To Learn As A Demand Planner
Sometimes things are not always what they seem or how you imagined them to be. Making my start in demand planning a few years back, there were some importan... Read More...