Dr. Chaman L. Jain

Ask Dr. Jain: How to Forecast for the Toy Industry?

Dr. Chaman L. JainSeptember 25, 2023

Q. What is the best method to forecast in the toy industry ? Or any industry where 70% + of the portfolio is renewed every year across thousand of SKUs ? Aggregation is understood, problems starts when entering SKU territory . A. There is no speci... Read More...

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How Global S&OP Works

Dr. Chaman L. JainOctober 26, 2022

In the last four decades or so, more and more companies have gone global. With that, the structure of the S&OP process has changed, though the key objective remains the same—aligning supply with demand, integrating operational plans with stra... Read More...

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Journal Of Business Forecasting: Letter From The Editor

Dr. Chaman L. JainJanuary 13, 2022

S&OP, the topic of this special issue, is a great process for managing demand, which also goes by the name of SIOP (Sales, Inventory and Operations Planning), IBP (Integrated Business Planning) and MIOE (Merchandizing, Inventory and Operation... Read More...

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How To Improve Forecast Accuracy During The Pandemic?

Dr. Chaman L. JainJuly 1, 2021

Q) During the current pandemic we are facing a very difficult time in preparing forecasts. Our forecast accuracy is far below what used to be. Can you suggest any way to improve it? A.) We are certainly in a new economic phase, something we have n... Read More...

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What Is Forecast Bias?

Dr. Chaman L. JainJuly 1, 2021

Q) What is forecast bias? Do you have a view on what should be considered as “best-in-class” bias? A) It simply measures the tendency to over-or under-forecast. It is an average of non-absolute values of forecast errors. If it is negative, a compa... Read More...

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UPDATE: COVID-19 USA ROLLING FORECASTS

Dr. Chaman L. JainJanuary 5, 2021

Below are the updated forecasts of coronavirus cases and deaths in the USA. The forecasts are daily rolling forecasts, looking 2 months ahead. Alongside the forecast, you will find actuals and forecast accuracy expressed as MAPE. This rolling forecas... Read More...

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COVID-19 USA & NEW YORK ROLLING FORECASTS

Dr. Chaman L. JainMay 1, 2020

The following is a daily rolling forecast of Covid-19 cases and deaths in the USA and New York State, looking 2 months ahead. It is prepared by Dr. Chaman L. Jain, Professor of Economics at St. John's University, and author of the book, Fundamentals ... Read More...

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How Do I Calculate Lost Sales From A Stockout?

Dr. Chaman L. JainApril 13, 2020

Q: Thanks for the Wonderful Book "Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting". Is there any best proven and Industry accepted model/algorithm to calculate sales loss? For example, the actual sale duration for an item is from 7 am to 10.30 pm e... Read More...

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Ask Dr. Jain: Where To Put The Forecasting Function For Lowest Forecast Error?

Dr. Chaman L. JainSeptember 23, 2019

Do you have any research/survey data regarding where to place the forecasting function? I have a client who is in the process of migrating to the S&OP process and wants to decide where to put it. They do not want it within Supply Chain, and are ... Read More...

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What Is Upward & Downward Bias In Forecasting?

Dr. Chaman L. JainMay 1, 2019

Question Dear sir, I'm working in a procurement department. I have an interest in learning demand planning, an area in which I have some doubts. 1 - What is consistent upward and downward bias. Where do we use these? 2 - What is constrained a... Read More...

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