A Critical Look at Measuring and Calculating Forecast Bias

I cannot discuss forecasting bias without mentioning MAPE, but since I have written about those topics in the past, in this post, I will concentrate on Forecast Bias. Forecast Bias can be described as a tendency to either over-forecast (forecast is more than the actual), or under-forecast (forecast is less than the actual), leading to a forecasting error. There are many reasons why such… Read more>>

My Powerful Journey in Demand Planning – Hooked on Analytics

My career in forecasting has been challenging, at times frustrating, and above all immensely rewarding. This is my story of how I learnt to predict consumer trends, and revolutionize the fortunes of the companies I have worked for. It all started at AIWA Consumer Electronics in the early 1990s. Here I was, a fresh MBA in my first Associate Product Manager role for personal audio products… Read more>>

Dedicating an Independent S&OP Process for New Product Planning

In today’s economy, being on top of what is on the consumer’s mind is key, and having a successful stream of new products remains of paramount importance. New product introductions often count for more than 30% of a company’s revenue, and “getting it right” can make or break the year’s bottom line. What does “getting it right” mean? ...Providing the right product, to the right… Read more>>

S&OP: Hire for Strategy, Not for Need

“You’ve got the req. — go get to hiring.” Hearing these words from a superior can be enlivening… or startling… or both. In the still-evolving world of Sales & Operations Planning — a world of theory, studies, perceptions, and perspectives — many champions see the investment of personnel as the biggest predictor of success. While executive sponsorship is often cited… Read more>>

Never Good Enough

One way for a demand planner to reach the other side of the shore is to always question your process, reporting, and audience needs. Market dynamics are changing and so are the company’s needs. The author outlines what the demand planner has to do to succeed in this profession. “26 years of experience is working against him. He figures anything big enough to sink the ship they’re gonna… Read more>>

Is Communication More Important than Accuracy in Demand Planning?

Demand Planning performance is driven by metrics. MAPE and bias provide a compass to evaluate performance, and make necessary changes to the forecast. It is for this reason that most Demand Planning teams put a significant amount of emphasis on delivering improvements against these objectives, and why industry benchmarking reports focus in this area. In this article, I explore whether metrics… Read more>>