probablistic forecast

Stop Saying Forecasts Are Always Wrong!

Eric Wilson, ACPFNovember 16, 2020

Stop saying forecasts are always wrong! It’s a pet peeve of mine because when you say this, you’re only hurting yourself and this field. Besides, you are wrong! Forecasts can be 100% correct. Every business decision is built on a forward-looking p... Read More...

Advanced AnalyticsAnalyticsModels & Methods1 Comment 0

Attention Demand Planners: Is Your Thinking Linear Or Probabilistic?

Eric Wilson, ACPFOctober 23, 2018

Research shows that 5 out of 4 business professionals do not understand statistics (pun intended). Most people don’t have a natural affinity for probability either. But probabilistic thinking lies behind predictive analytics, becoming a data driven o... Read More...

Advanced AnalyticsAnalyticsPredictive Analytics2 Comments 0

Introducing (E)Score: MAPE For Range Forecasts

Eric Wilson, ACPFAugust 16, 2018

Eric Wilson CPF introduces a new measurement of probabilistic forecast performance that measures error, range and probability all in one formula. It goes beyond grading the forecaster, instead providing a valuable snapshot of a forecast's accuracy, r... Read More...

AnalyticsKPIs/Metrics3 Comments 0

Stop Saying Forecasts Are Always Wrong

Eric Wilson, ACPFFebruary 20, 2018

For many of us, the words “the forecast is always wrong” has become something we instinctively say. There’s nothing wrong with acknowledging there is variation in demand or admitting we may miss a projection. But when it becomes your automatic respon... Read More...

Forecasting and Planning5 Comments 2