Posts Tagged ‘ forecasting models ’

Safety Stock, Forecasting, and S&OP

October 22, 2014
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Safety Stock, Forecasting, and S&OP

Tweet Most practitioners of Sales & Operations Planning would agree that the focus of an S&OP Process should be on the mid-to-long range horizon, and typically at a volume/aggregate level.  However, I am often surprised when some of these same practitioners indicate that backward-looking Demand planning KPIs like Forecast Accuracy and Forecast Bias, as well…

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Interdepartmental Cooperation Optimizes Supply Chain Limitations – Journal of Business Forecasting Fall 2014

October 22, 2014
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Interdepartmental Cooperation Optimizes Supply Chain Limitations – Journal of Business Forecasting Fall 2014

Tweet Volume 33 Issue 3 Fall 2014   Click here to download a sample copy of the latest Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF) Click here to Become an IBF member and get a JBF subscription FREE Featured Articles: Interdepartmental Cooperation Optimizes Supply Chain Limitations By Michael Morris The author describes how working with Marketing and…

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IBF Report: Benchmarking Forecast Errors

October 22, 2014
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IBF Report: Benchmarking Forecast Errors

Tweet Within demand planning and forecasting, there is nothing more important than forecast accuracy. The success of any plan greatly depends on it. Forecasts allow you to determine opportunities and risks; they also help to effectively manage supply and demand. Gone are the days when manufacturers produced what they thought they could sell. That was…

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Should the Naïve Forecast be Your Default Forecast?

July 3, 2012
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Should the Naïve Forecast be Your Default Forecast?

Tweet Short answer: No. For the past month there has been a healthy discussion about forecast accuracy metrics on the Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning discussion group on LinkedIn. This was all prompted by the question, “How does one establish an acceptable target to measure against?” posed by Catherine Waudby, Volume Planning Specialist at…

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The Science of Forecasting

May 31, 2012
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The Science of Forecasting

Tweet We’re familiar with application of the scientific method in certain industries, such as Pharmaceuticals. When a new drug is introduced, we expect that its safety and efficacy has been demonstrated through appropriately controlled experiments. For example, to test a new cold remedy we would find 100 people with colds, randomly give half the new…

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Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting Book

May 3, 2012
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Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting Book

Tweet I am pleased to announce the completion of my new book, “Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting.” To me, this is the most comprehensive book written in the area of demand planning and forecasting, covering practically every topic which a demand planner needs to know. This book discusses not only the different models of…

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Using Shipment History: A Deadly Sin?

April 20, 2012
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Using Shipment History: A Deadly Sin?

Tweet In his article titled “Seven Deadly Sins of Sales Forecasting” in the March 28 edition of APICS extra, Fred Tolbert compiled a useful list of bad practices than can worsen our forecasting, inventory management, and customer service results. I particularly liked Deadly Sin #5: Senior Management Meddling, and wrote about it on The Business…

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My Experience at IBF’s Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting Conference

March 13, 2012
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My Experience at IBF’s Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting Conference

Tweet   This happened to be my first of what I hope to be many encounters with the folks at Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning (IBF) events.  I will never be able to understand how I came to be where I am today in my career, but I am very thankful all the same…

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IBF Scottsdale Seminar on Forecasting

March 7, 2012
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IBF Scottsdale Seminar on Forecasting

Tweet As I write this I am currently flying back from Scottsdale Arizona to Jacksonville Florida after attending IBF’s  Supply Chain Forecasting  & Planning Conference and find myself taking some time to review the last 3 days in my mind. When I arrived in Arizona, I had no idea what to expect. I had never…

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Forecasting Confessions of IBF Conference Attendees

March 5, 2012
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Forecasting Confessions of IBF Conference Attendees

Tweet At last weeks IBF Supply Chain Forecasting & Planning Conference in Scottsdale, AZ, I had the somber responsibility of facilitating three round table sessions on “Worst Practices in Business Forecasting.”  Thirty-eight of the biggest sinners in the forecasting/demand planning profession confessed to a variety of irresponsible and embarrassing behaviors that we can all learn…

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