Should the Naïve Forecast be Your Default Forecast?

July 3, 2012
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Should the Naïve Forecast be Your Default Forecast?

Tweet Short answer: No. For the past month there has been a healthy discussion about forecast accuracy metrics on the Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning discussion group on LinkedIn. This was all prompted by the question, “How does one establish an acceptable target to measure against?” posed by Catherine Waudby, Volume Planning Specialist at…

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The Science of Forecasting

May 31, 2012
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The Science of Forecasting

Tweet We’re familiar with application of the scientific method in certain industries, such as Pharmaceuticals. When a new drug is introduced, we expect that its safety and efficacy has been demonstrated through appropriately controlled experiments. For example, to test a new cold remedy we would find 100 people with colds, randomly give half the new…

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Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting Book

May 3, 2012
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Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting Book

Tweet I am pleased to announce the completion of my new book, “Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting.” To me, this is the most comprehensive book written in the area of demand planning and forecasting, covering practically every topic which a demand planner needs to know. This book discusses not only the different models of…

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Using Shipment History: A Deadly Sin?

April 20, 2012
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Using Shipment History: A Deadly Sin?

Tweet In his article titled “Seven Deadly Sins of Sales Forecasting” in the March 28 edition of APICS extra, Fred Tolbert compiled a useful list of bad practices than can worsen our forecasting, inventory management, and customer service results. I particularly liked Deadly Sin #5: Senior Management Meddling, and wrote about it on The Business…

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My Experience at IBF’s Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting Conference

March 13, 2012
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My Experience at IBF’s Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting Conference

Tweet   This happened to be my first of what I hope to be many encounters with the folks at Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning (IBF) events.  I will never be able to understand how I came to be where I am today in my career, but I am very thankful all the same…

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IBF Scottsdale Seminar on Forecasting

March 7, 2012
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IBF Scottsdale Seminar on Forecasting

Tweet As I write this I am currently flying back from Scottsdale Arizona to Jacksonville Florida after attending IBF’s  Supply Chain Forecasting  & Planning Conference and find myself taking some time to review the last 3 days in my mind. When I arrived in Arizona, I had no idea what to expect. I had never…

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